February 28th, 2010
Many are pointing recent history to evidence of various failings by Toyota. This may offer useful fodder, but Toyota’s challenges are part of a much larger arc. I want to focus on the auto industry, but this extends into every aspect of contemporary life. I have had a front row seat for various aspects of this from my time in the auto industry and years in Silicon Valley.
My personal experience dates to automotive emissions controls entering the auto industry. And where did this start? In the same congress where Toyota found themselves this month. I find this a most curious path. In some ways we have been hoisted on our own petard, but such is the role of technology today. We are addicted, but want perfection while we press on for more better-cheaper-faster.
Television was not the only vast wasteland (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wasteland_speech ). In the 1960’s and 70’s the auto industry was largely lost, dazed and confused. I often referred to the condition as driving forward by looking in the rear view mirror. You could find a host of faults in that time, and more in retrospect. At the same time it was a vibrant US industry. A huge wake-up was the call for emission controls, and the industry could hardly have been less prepared.
The first steps the industry made in reducing auto emissions were awkward and kludge-ridden to be kind. I know too well. (I would suggest that 1972-3 car engines built to meet CA laws were among the worst ever made.) The first innovation to the rescue was the catalytic converter. For the converters to work best required demanding fuel control. This was a milestone that has swept through the industry–not emissions control, but the accuracy in control that demanded electronics.
Old-timers lament that a modern car cannot be serviced and now no one knows what they are looking at under the hood. You could blame congress if you like, but the net result has given us far better cars. Another example of law influencing auto technology is the introduction of airbags, yet another potentially controversial subject.
The role of electronics/semiconductors started growing by necessity and at a relatively slow rate. That rate changed as the capability of electronics could not be avoided in delivering new features. The die was cast. Legal demands helped accelerate (no pun intended) the rate of adoption, but this wave of electronics in the auto was inevitable. ABS brakes and airbags took years in development, but these very complex critical safety systems are widely sought by consumers. Now we are adding all variety of vehicle stability systems that are also vital to safety. We are immersed in technology for safety as well as no end of convenience features.
Drive by wire (the electrical connection of pedal to throttle) electronic control systems are coming under scrutiny. Why? I would argue that first because we can. The less we know about something the more we can use FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt) to scare others and ourselves. Our scientific ignorance as a culture makes this an ideal environment to for any issue to fester. Rather than compare to an electronic heart pacer (or other reliable embedded system), we connect software to our computer/Internet experience. While this may be understandable it is not only inappropriate, it is wrong.
Each electronic system is designed and, moreover, tested independently. A throttle or brake system will need to meet different requirements than a PC application. There is little reason to associate the two simply because both depend on software code. There is no simple way I can prove this, if you don’t want to think about it. I have been on the inside of both beasts, so to speak. One of the biggest shocks of my life was the difference, since my career started in the auto industry and I presumed anyone would have similar standards. That is not the case! All manufacturers are concerned about quality, but that does not translate to the same practices or results (nor should it). I am not the best one to comment on current auto industry practices, but I do know the culture. When you design and test for a product made in the millions AND you cannot go back to fix without great cost you think VERY differently. You cannot do a system upgrade on a fleet of cars every week, month or whatever. So all those personal lessons learned in the consumer (or enterprise for that matter) computer simply do not apply. When you realize that consumer products are ahead of what you get in a car– for example GPS, there is one main reason. It is not that car companies don’t want to have the “latest,” but that the testing demand far exceeds a consumer product.
Today we find ourselves buying and demanding computer-enabled autos. From braking systems to auto stereos we are addicted to the latest. This has had a huge influence on this entire situation. Design diligence and manufacturing quality using the best technologies are not going away– and neither are our human habits.
I think we need to seriously consider that this entire Toyota issue is more about people and psychology than it is about technology or manufacturing quality. That means I have yet another blog to write.